Forecasting Bihar’s Regional Bioeconomy Transition: Innovation,  Green Growth, and Economy–Environment–Employment Outcomes  by 2050

Jitendra Kumar Sinha

doi:10.63385/sriic.v1i3.101153

Abstract

The transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy is increasingly recognised as a strategic pathway for simultaneously promoting economic development, environmental sustainability, and employment generation. However, empirical evidence on long-term regional bioeconomy transitions in developing economies remains limited, particularly in biomass-rich yet structurally constrained regions, where innovation capacity, institutional quality, and spatial heterogeneity critically influence development outcomes. This study addresses this gap by developing an integrated Bioeconomy–Economy–Environment–Employment (Bioeconomy–E3) framework to evaluate Bihar's prospective bioeconomy transition to 2050 under alternative policy and innovation scenarios. The analysis combines district-level spatial assessment, composite index construction, econometric modelling, hybrid artificial intelligence and machine-learning forecasting, and scenario-based simulations using multidimensional datasets compiled from national, institutional, international, and satellite-derived sources covering 2005–2025. The forecasting architecture integrates ARIMA, VAR/VECM, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models within an ensemble framework that exploits the complementary strengths of statistical inference and nonlinear machine learning. The scenario-based projections indicate that innovation capacity, biomass utilization efficiency, renewable-energy adoption, infrastructure quality, and institutional effectiveness are the principal drivers of long-term bioeconomy performance. Under the accelerated innovation scenario, Bihar is projected to achieve stronger productivity growth, greater renewable-energy integration, improved circular resource utilization, enhanced environmental performance, and expanded green employment relative to business-as-usual and policy-driven transition scenarios. Spatial analysis further reveals substantial district-level disparities in transition readiness, underscoring the importance of differentiated place-based policies and adaptive governance. By integrating regional innovation systems, spatial heterogeneity, hybrid econometric–AI forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis within a unified analytical framework, the study advances regional bioeconomy scholarship and provides a transferable methodological approach for evaluating sustainable bioeconomy transitions in developing economies.

Standards-related Regional Innovation and International Cooperation

Forecasting Bihar’s Regional Bioeconomy Transition: Innovation, Green Growth, and Economy–Environment–Employment Outcomes by 2050

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